Financial modeling basics: How to plan your startup numbers (even if you’re not a finance person)

Learning goal

Your startup’s numbers tell a story about how you grow, how you spend, and how long you can survive.

You don’t need to be an accountant. You just need a clear, living model that helps you make better decisions and talk with clarity when investors or partners ask, “what’s your plan?”

Why it matters

1. Most founders fly blind
   They focus on users or features, but have no idea how long their money will last.

2. A good model gives you control
   It shows you where you stand, where you’re headed, and what needs to change to survive—or thrive.

3. Investors don’t want perfection
   They want logic, traction, and confidence that you’re thinking ahead.

How to build a simple startup model

1. Start with what a financial model actually is
   It’s just a tool to estimate:

   • Your revenue (how you make money)

   • Your costs (how you spend money)

   • Your cash flow (how long you can keep going)

   Think of it as your GPS. It won’t be perfect, but it’ll help you avoid dead ends.

2. Plan 12 months ahead, using three parts

   • Revenue:

     • How many users?

     • How much do they pay?

     • When do you expect growth?

   • Costs:

     • Fixed (rent, tools, team)

     • Variable (ads, logistics, sales commissions)

   • Cash flow:

     • Starting cash

     • Monthly income – monthly expenses

     • Runway = how many months until you run out

3. Use real assumptions, not guesses
   Example:

   • 100 users × ₱200 = ₱20,000 revenue

   • 2 part-time team members × ₱10,000 = ₱20,000 cost

   You’ve now found your break-even point.

4. Add your fundraising needs
   If you plan to raise money, include:

   • How much you need

   • What it unlocks (milestones)

   • How long it covers

   Investors don’t expect exact predictions, they expect well-thought-out plans.

5. Update it monthly
   Your model isn’t one-and-done. It’s a tool you refine based on real data. Use it to:

   • Spot problems early

   • Plan new hires or spend

   • Stay on track toward your next milestone

Quick checklist

You’re on the right track if:

• You’ve listed your core revenue and cost drivers

• You’ve calculated your runway and break-even point

• You’ve made clear, testable assumptions

• You’ve added funding goals and timing

• You’re using your model to guide real-world choices

StellarPH tip

Start simple, pen, paper, then a spreadsheet.
If you can’t explain your numbers to a friend, go back and simplify.

Your numbers don’t need to be fancy.
They just need to be real, honest, and useful.